For now, everyone’s laughter is silenced, chuckles have stopped, those who initiated the talk are despondent, and those who heard it are astonished and worried. Life is hanging in the balance on both sides. Remember, just a month ago, the celebrations of the full moon were being observed, the honeymoon was fully underway, but beneath the bed of festive joy, the storm that had been hidden for a long time has finally come out and dealt a shock to the government allies. Now everyone is busy making strategies to bear this shock and neutralize its effect. Initiating a talk, presenting a plan, or blowing a whistle does create a ripple, but where this matter goes and what its ultimate result turns out to be is the most important; as if no matter how new a step taking a initiative is, the actual matter depends on the result—that is why it remains to be seen, “Who will have the last laugh?”
When the political weather is clear, walking on dry ground remains easy for those in power, but when there is a storm of wind and rain, politicians walk in the mud with great care. Their experience tells them how to avoid slipping. The weather was fairly clean; who knows from where rain suddenly came pouring down. In every political house and shop, deliberations are underway on a strategy to pass safely through the rain and mud. It seems as though every party in this matter is currently using the Urdu word “Bhugat” (suffer, endure, or settle accounts) in their own way. The payback/settlement for the ruling coalition parties has begun; PPP (Pipli) is ready to face/endure it, PML-N (Noni) wants to get it settled/disposed of, and PTI (Insafi) wants to make those who initiated the talk and those who do politics against them pay/suffer for it in this matter.
President Zardari is a thorough Sindhi, but he considers Sindh and Pakistan as two parts of the same body. Due to his past experience, after much thought, he had decided to walk alongside the powerful establishment. He might be the last Sindhi to resist any decision of the establishment; however, if it becomes a matter of his politics, leadership, or honor and respect, he can take off the garb of reconciliation and wear the armor of resistance as well. Eleven years of continuous imprisonment could not have been spent without a resistant mindset. There must still be sparks in the ashes of resistance. As Rana Sanaullah said, their issue is not the ego of the Pakistan Peoples Party, but its survival; therefore, if they are forced, let it not happen that desperation turns into defiance (Tang Aamad Be-Jang Aamad). The second major party in this matter is Nawaz Sharif. PML-N (Noni) is currently silent out of expediency, but they do not hesitate to reveal that their government and party were asked multiple times to initiate the talk of new provinces, but PML-N was not convinced of taking the lead or initiative in this matter, which is why this talk was made to happen through another forum instead of N-League.
Historically, the PML-N leadership is considered the most experienced at this time. Nawaz Sharif himself, while playing a decisive role in foreign and economic affairs, has also had acquaintances and working relations with every head of the establishment after General Zia-ul-Haq. He experienced occasional ups and downs in these relations, but generally, he formulates strategies together with his brother, Shehbaz Sharif. After past bitterness, he too has become convinced that disagreement between the establishment and the government harms the state; hence, he will not make any adventurous decision, but perhaps fully agreeing with this issue will also be difficult for him. In this system, because of his Prime Minister brother, Nawaz Sharif holds enough stature that his stance will be heard attentively, and rejecting it completely will not be easy either. Outside the government, two other political parties in the opposition are also important regarding new provinces. For supporters of Prisoner No. 804, even a slight crack between the government allies and the establishment becomes news of joy. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has traditionally been in favor of new provinces, and if it sides with the establishment on this issue at this critical moment, the allied parties will weaken, and paths could start opening up for Tehreek-e-Insaf and its leader. Apparently, a “relief/concession” (Dheel) can play a decisive role in this matter, but the real issue is that if the matter gets resolved by taking Prisoner No. 804 to the hospital or providing minor facilities, so be it; there seems to be no possibility whatsoever of giving Imran Khan the major relief of release or active politics. The reason for this is that an extraordinary concession for Imran could cause the collapse of the entire present system. For the sake of creating new provinces, the system itself will not want to create a danger for itself. This means that Imran Khan might get a candy in exchange for new provinces, but not a lavish lunch or dinner. The question will be whether Tehreek-e-Insaf will compulsively accept this weak deal, or will it remain steadfast on a stubborn resistance (main na maanoon) and wait for a better time.
In religious and parliamentary politics, the name of Maulana Fazlur Rehman is important; he too is not currently in favor of the creation of new provinces. Apparently, most among the politicians are displaying a reaction of hesitation and avoidance, whereas signals of priority and urgency are being received from the establishment. The politicians want to steer it toward postponement and delay through tactics. The situation has become such that no matter how much PML-N keeps saying that all is well, temporary comfort can be given through this verbal opium. However, when smoke begins to rise, then without extinguishing its spark, everything is at risk.
At present, only one topic is under discussion in every political gathering of the country, and that is the creation of new provinces. In the recent political past of Sindh, the kind of severe reaction that came over the construction of Kalabagh Dam and the establishment of six canals, a similar reaction is coming over the proposal to separate Karachi and Sindh. Despite pressure on the Kalabagh Dam and the six canals, those projects had to be cancelled. However, during the budget this year, through reconciliation and dialogue, Sindh along with Punjab willingly handed over a substantial portion of its development budget to the Federation, even though past behaviors had been contrary to this conduct. When talked to with love, and a detailed dialogue took place on the reservations and priorities of the provinces, both Sindh and Punjab did without demur what was not even expected of them. Sensitive and delicate matters are not resolved by force and coercion; rather, they worsen.
The present system, in which the state and politics are walking together, can be exemplified like a wall. Every brick of the wall gives strength to the other brick, but if one brick is pulled out of the wall, the entire wall becomes hollow, and it becomes easy to knock it down with just a slight push. There is a fear that in the attempt to make each other pay/suffer, everyone might end up suffering altogether. It should be remembered that internal differences give birth to the ultimate downfall (Bhugtao) of the system.