There is a world of difference between Ghaseetay and Bilawal Bhutto. He is far more influential, well-informed, and knowledgeable than a rejected journalist. He has stated regarding the provinces that a full stop has been put to this debate, interpreting and explaining which a cartoonist has shown Bilawal standing at the grave of new provinces. Generally, the meaning drawn from Bilawal Bhutto’s statement is that the chapter of the proposal for new provinces has been closed, but Bilawal Bhutto has perhaps made a mistake in recognizing the full stop. This is actually a comma which he mistook for a full stop. The matter of new provinces was postponed temporarily, but the deadline for legislation on this issue before March 2027 still stands. There has been no change in thinking about creating new provinces. Reservations and differences of the rejected journalist on this proposal are on record, but news is news. The information is that N-League has agreed to the creation of new provinces in Punjab and is ready to fully support and cooperate in the legislation for new provinces. The condition laid down is that the new provinces will be brought into existence after the 2029 elections. A final decision has not been made regarding the number of new provinces within Punjab, but the proposal to divide Punjab into four provinces is more popular in high circles. The Pakistan Peoples Party has no objection to creating provinces within Punjab; in fact, PPP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and Tehreek-e-Insaf have already practically recognized new provinces by forming separate provincial organizations for Southern Punjab and Central Punjab. Severe objections and reservations of the Peoples Party regarding the division of Sindh are still present. Bilawal Bhutto has also openly expressed these objections and reservations, and in his full-stop statement, the glimpse of delight is over the fact that this plan has ended. However, some leaders of the Peoples Party want to find a middle ground instead of fighting with the establishment on this matter. In this regard, the proposal given is that Islamabad, Gwadar, and Karachi be declared federal territories, and like the Indian city of Chandigarh, the capital of Sindh should also remain established in Karachi. It may be recalled that when Indian Punjab was divided into three parts, Chandigarh was made the capital of two provinces, which is a Union Territory (federal territory). The proposal to divide Rural Sindh into two parts is such that along with underdeveloped areas, developed urban units are also present in both provinces. In Balochistan, Peoples Party’s Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti has already agreed to the creation of new provinces. It is heard that in the provincial division within Balochistan, care will be taken to ensure that a combination of both Baloch and Pashtun is fully visible in every provincial unit. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in the presence of Governor’s Rule and Emergency, there is no possibility of any resistance against new provinces. However, the second largest electoral force in Pakhtunkhwa, Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman, currently does not consider this time suitable for creating new provinces. After this preparation, Bilawal Bhutto putting a full stop on this plan does not seem correct. There are certainly commas placed in this plan, but the work is ongoing and continuous.
If the political aspect of this matter is viewed, the government’s biggest stakeholder, Muslim League (N), despite reservations, has agreed with the establishment’s decision to create new provinces. The sole condition set in this regard is that the new provinces be created after the 2029 elections. Setting this deadline means that in the next two to two-and-a-half years, Chief Minister of Punjab Maryam Nawaz Sharif, while keeping her developmental works and projects free from political interference, will build such goodwill in Punjab that her party forms the government in four or at least 3 new provinces of Punjab. The current system’s second biggest political stakeholder, Peoples Party, is currently suffering from severe hesitation; if it agrees to the division of Sindh, its politics goes away, and if it continues to oppose new provinces, not only will power turn its back on it for a long period, but it will also have to undergo harsh accountability as in the past.
On the sensitive issue of creating new provinces, Tehreek-e-Insaf’s old stance was in its favor, but in the present circumstances, if the Peoples Party does not vote or remains indecisive, can Tehreek-e-Insaf get some concessions from the establishment for its party founder and its party by helping to create new provinces? Apparently, many opinions in favor of this possibility point toward some reconciliation or understanding, but far and wide, there seems no possibility of reconciliation or support for the current system’s new provinces plan from the founder for now. Tehreek-e-Insaf’s parliamentary leadership seems in favor of getting concessions for themselves by supporting new provinces, but the estimation is that the founder will not allow his party any such reconciliation; if ever a door of reconciliation opens, it is possible through Bushra Imran. She is the only one who can convince the founder for any such reconciliation, understanding, or deal. Suppose that with the founder’s consent, Tehreek-e-Insaf even votes in favor of the government regarding new provinces, how will reconciliation between N-League and the founder be possible? The establishment is not a candidate for prime ministership, but Shehbaz Sharif and Imran Khan are opponents of each other for the attainment of the very same seat. How will reconciliation between them be possible? After giving the vote, will Tehreek-e-Insaf’s electoral politics and narrative benefit or suffer loss? To the extent of aggressive attitude that Tehreek-e-Insaf’s YouTuber brave fugitives have, whatever reconciliation takes place with or without the founder’s consent, they will tear it apart in their narrative, exactly as they tore apart the reconciliatory attitude of Barrister Gohar Khan, Gandapur, and Afridi.
The reality is that the stage of legislation on new provinces will not be easy for any political party. Tehreek-e-Insaf is already facing difficulties. If it supports the government in this legislation, questions will be raised on its political credibility, and if it does not support, difficulties will increase even more. This stage will not be easy for N-League either. If the Peoples Party does not support and support of Tehreek-e-Insaf has to be taken on this legislation, what political justification will the same N-League and Tehreek-e-Insaf—who have been face-to-face for the past several years—present for supporting each other? And how will they satisfy their respective hawks? The easiest path is the continuation of the alliance between Peoples Party and N-League, or support of Tehreek-e-Insaf members on this legislation without the founder’s consent. Obviously, this will be declared equivalent to rebellion against the party and the founder, and they will not get tickets in the upcoming elections. This is also a major reason for no rebellion taking place in Tehreek-e-Insaf.
The two months of this year and the first three months of next year will be extremely meaningful regarding the reaction of political parties on new provinces. The political behavior of these very 5 months will decide future politics, the 2029 elections, a possible national or caretaker government, and future rulers.