The visionary poet Ghalib raised this subtle point: “When nothing exists without You, what is this commotion, O God?” Currently, politics is neither taking place nor is there any room for it; so what is this turmoil, and why is it happening? What should a simple soul understand or explain to others?

Poets and thinkers of the past used the metaphor of “pottery” (Kooza-gari) for new creations, novel plans, and transforming human beings and systems. Persian poets Hafez Shirazi and Omar Khayyam, as well as the Urdu poet N.M. Rashid, frequently used terms like the potter and the vessel-maker. For a long time, the potters had been heating their kilns and sitting ready with their wheels to fashion new pots. All of this remained behind a veil of secrecy until June 9 or 10 of this year, when this “certified false journalist” shot an arrow into the air. He wrote a column titled “Alert, Beware, Be Ready,” stating that since the government had failed in politics and the economy, its decline would begin in July. To be cautious and to avoid public wrath, this untruthful journalist deemed it appropriate to clarify that it was an analysis, not a news report.

However, no amount of caution saved this journalist; friends and foes alike turned on him with full force.

The YouTuber Bahadur Farari is so consumed by prejudice and hatred that he adores the liars who float daily rumors of Imran Khan’s release, while viewing realists as establishment agents and paid puppets of the PML-N. My benefactor, angered by me, advised me to retire, remarking: “He used to say an US-Iran reconciliation was impossible, yet we made it happen. He is consistently proven wrong, and this column will prove wrong as well.” A relative remarked that there was no decline in sight, claiming the military and PML-N are now so close that their alliance has become part of the curriculum. Another well-wisher asserted that he was oblivious to reality and floated such stories merely to make a name for himself.

This “false journalist” kept swallowing the bitter pill of comments from friends and foes alike. July was not far off, so the goal was to wait and see what would unfold—whether the liar would turn out to be truthful, or if the well-informed, those close to the powerful, or those holding an unnecessary grudge against me would be proven right. Had I been proven wrong, it would have been just another stamp of falsehood on me. But alas, the opposite happened. This false journalist stands embarrassed before both friends and foes because his “lie” turned out to be true. My personal wish was to be proven wrong once more—after all, criticism can be a blessing. I apologize to my friends and foes for this inadvertent mistake of being right. May God count me among the liars rather than the arrogant; for me, that is the ultimate provision for the afterlife and the humblest proof of human dignity.

Ghalib was a great man; he questioned Almighty God. Hafez and N.M. Rashid kept discussing the potter. But today we live in Kalyug—the final, dark era—where the popular Bollywood line resonates more: “Why is there such a commotion when I’ve only said a little thing?”

At the Islamabad Convention Center, Federal Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi dropped a bombshell by declaring that the system has failed. This humble writer was among the audience. It was no ordinary gathering of businessmen, but the largest convention of traders in the country’s history to date, with representatives present from Gwadar to Mianwali, and from the tribal areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to Dadu in Sindh. As many as 400 hotel rooms were booked for the visiting traders.

For a day and a half, under the leadership of business leader S.M. Tanveer, the core message of the deliberations was that while traders run the country’s economy, they have no representation in governmental and state decision-making. In response to this, the Interior Minister bluntly remarked that traders covertly fund elections, and that politics runs entirely on traders’ money. He suggested that traders should actively step into politics and enter the assemblies themselves so they can participate in state and governmental decision-making.

Former Interim Federal Minister Gohar Ejaz is currently the most prominent figure in the powerful group of industrialists and traders. He led the entire campaign against the Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This year, a think tank under his leadership also presented an alternative budget. Furthermore, he is part of the consortium bidding to acquire PIA. He was present on stage during the Interior Minister’s speech, though he did not deliver one himself. However, his trusted associates, Fawad Mukhtar and S.M. Tanveer, spoke on improving the agrarian economy and involving traders in government decisions, respectively.

A surprising presence at the convention was Ahsan Bhoon, the head of the Independent Group of lawyers. Chaudhry Ahsan Bhoon is the son-in-law of the legendary Punjabi poet Afzal Ahsan Randhawa and has been associated with the PPP from the beginning. He and Federal Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar are close friends. Addressing the traders, Ahsan Bhoon tried to untangle the constitutional knot by pointing out that the Constitution allows for altering provincial boundaries. Contrary to the PPP’s official stance, he expressed the view that creating smaller provinces has become necessary.

The final speech was delivered by Federal Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi. When he arrived at the event, he was holding papers, and even while seated, he remained continuously engaged in editing his notes. When he delivered his explosive speech, it was clear that he had prepared its main points beforehand. Very little of his address was spontaneous or off-the-cuff; the vast majority was premeditated and well-thought-out. His remarks about the failure of the system, the creation of new administrative units or provinces, and his praise for the Field Marshal and the Prime Minister were not made in a fit of emotion, but in a cool, calculated manner. It appeared as though he was delivering a message from the establishment.

My assessment is that since the Interior Minister and the Prime Minister share a very warm relationship, the Minister must have discussed in private with the Prime Minister the very points he voiced publicly at the traders’ convention. And since the Interior Minister is deeply cautious and never breaks protocol, it is also possible he obtained the Prime Minister’s prior permission to state these things publicly.

If my guess is correct, despite holding severe reservations about the Interior Minister’s proposals, the PML-N will likely refrain from reacting and prefer to wait out the situation for now. On the other hand, for the PPP and its leadership, this represents the toughest test in recent years. While the PPP might maintain a cautious silence on dividing Sindh into administrative units, when it comes to creating new provinces or holding a referendum on the issue, the PPP will have to choose between its politics and power. Accepting the creation of new provinces in Sindh would mean the death of its Sindhi political base; rejecting it would mean losing power and facing difficult times ahead.

In the past, the PPP and the PML-N have come to each other’s aid, both openly and covertly. These two parties fight each other, yet if a third party attacks them, they unite. Seemingly, in the current context, the PML-N and the PPP will stick to their separate paths and identities. In the recent past, mutual goodwill had grown to the extent that the PPP was considered for the post of Speaker of the National Assembly, though that arrangement ultimately did not materialize. The establishment favoring the PML-N over the PPP in the Kashmir elections has left the PPP deeply aggrieved for the time being.

Had conditions been favorable, both the PML-N and the PPP would have been ready to fight following the Interior Minister’s speech. The issue is that both parties are seasoned and experienced; they know full well that the environment is not in their favor. The establishment holds all the sway, while their own political standing is at its weakest, teetering at the edge of unpopularity. As for the PML-N, it is determined to take the jolts and stay on board this train. The PPP, however, has less maneuvering room and far more difficulties. It remains to be seen whether they are even in a position to strike a deal. In any case, the PPP’s top priority will be to avoid a direct confrontation.