One should speak optimistically. Whatever may be happening behind the scenes, there is absolutely no chance of the Shehbaz government going anywhere for an eternity. Shehbaz Sharif is that rare gold which is still almost mythical in the mines of politics. Even in the most difficult atmosphere, he is an expert at walking among thorns. He knows that only by walking over hard rocks can he reach the galaxy.
Shehbaz’s mentor is Nawaz Sharif. The mentor’s face can easily reveal anger or happiness, but the disciple has surpassed even the mentor in hiding his emotions and intentions. If a recommendation comes from that side to include a new minister or a technocrat in the cabinet, he never says no, yet he does not implement it quickly either. On softness towards PTI, he and his party never show open disagreement, yet signals are definitely sent that force the bigger party onto the defensive. The cat-and-mouse game continues. The mouse is very clever, and the cat also does not want to eat the mouse, but the mouse is so experienced that it keeps the cat restless and threatens to run away.
Again, one should speak optimistically. For now, there is neither any chance of political doomsday nor has the countdown for the end of the Shehbaz government begun. However, if political doomsday ever becomes inevitable, then there is a possibility of a three-year national government in which, including PTI, the country’s largest parties will participate. Consider this national government as an alternative to a caretaker setup, but it will not be temporary; it will be long or durable. It will run for three years and will implement such far-reaching reforms that the country will set off on the path of development. Deliberations are underway to include changes in the coming amendments in this regard.
One should speak optimistically. For now, the Shehbaz government faces no threat whatsoever, but whenever its time ends, whether after a year or two, then a national government will come. It remains to be seen how far Shehbaz Sharif, with his immense talent, can push away this political doomsday and for how long he can keep the present setup running.
The demand for a national government is being raised by Mahmood Khan Achakzai. Imran Khan also does not disagree with this proposal. Interestingly, this is an opposition demand of PTI that could also be a possible ideal for the establishment, because it would end political tension within the country and create a conducive environment for economic growth. PTI does not want a long caretaker or durable national government, whereas the power-makers would want this national government to run for at least three years and to bring reforms that ensure reconciliation as well as determine the future path. Will this be possible or not? God knows. One should just speak optimistically.
For now, there is no possibility of the present coalition government leaving, and the policy of keeping a “soft touch” with PTI that is visible at the moment has both the PML-N and the establishment on board. These steps are meant to save themselves from the accusation of a cruel system, to improve international credibility, to keep the economic environment favorable, and to bring internal stability through reconciliation. Consider it an alternative to Churchill’s war cabinet; getting out of the crisis will be the responsibility of the cabinet.
The truth is that in recent days both Shehbaz and Maryam are in ascendancy, especially Shehbaz Sharif whose diplomatic flights and day-and-night hard work are taking him higher and higher. At this time, he has the upper hand. Other political and non-political forces are compelled to acknowledge him. He shows immense respect to the establishment and the Field Marshal and puts them ahead of himself everywhere. There is a relationship of mutual respect and trust between the two. The Field Marshal’s participation in Junaid Safdar’s wedding in Raiwind is an apparent sign of strengthening ties.
Everything is going fine and will continue to go fine. Shehbaz Sharif possesses immense abilities. He understands very well the subtleties and sensitivities of the corridors of power. Even if he is upset, he does not show displeasure, yet indirectly he expresses his sensitivity in various ways. Long experience has made him adept at postponing decisions with reasonable arguments while keeping himself vindicated. In recent days there was noise of change, some stir occurred, and its biggest beneficiary turned out to be Shehbaz Sharif. The decision-makers went into a defensive position, and Shehbaz Sharif got more space than before. This is the situation so far; who knows what will happen tomorrow?
In the politics and maneuvering of the current era, Shehbaz Sharif’s rival is not Imran Khan but Mahmood Khan Achakzai. Comparing the two personalities can help understand the future. Both have long political experience. Shehbaz Sharif is a master of wheeling and dealing; in every deal between PML-N and the establishment he has played the most important role. Achakzai, in this respect, is an outsider. With the help of Asif Zardari in court intrigues, Shehbaz Sharif inflicted a severe defeat on Imran Khan. Shehbaz Sharif is a horseman of the corridors of power and has always admired the role of the establishment.
Mahmood Khan Achakzai, on the other hand, despite being an opponent of the establishment for years, has still managed to remain part of the system. He is the only visible opponent of the establishment who hopes to return to the constitutional track through dialogue with it. A common trait between Shehbaz Sharif and Achakzai is the ability to hide inner emotions and plans deep within the heart. Discovering their real intentions and ambitions is extremely difficult.
There is, however, a clear contradiction in their thinking. Shehbaz Sharif wants to strengthen politics and the system by moving along with the establishment. He does not consider political supremacy the first priority; he believes achieving civilian supremacy through performance is a better strategy. On the other hand, Mahmood Khan Achakzai represents traditional democratic thought, which places adherence to the constitution and civilian supremacy as the first priority. He opposes violence and destruction and believes in peaceful political struggle. He has several fundamental disagreements with state ideology and also complaints about foreign and domestic policy, whereas Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has always been a supporter of state policy.
Now if the contest remains about wheeling and dealing and the corridors of power, Shehbaz Sharif will win with a clear margin. But if the matter reaches the political field or parliament and the decision is made there, then Mahmood Khan Achakzai will be the man of the match.
The idea of establishing a national government is not new. This thinking began right after the 2024 elections, but now PTI’s clear consent has increased the chances of this proposal. It is possible that this national government may come not for three years but for five. In any case, one thing is carved in stone: before the next election a national government will be formed, and if it is not formed and the reform agenda is not implemented, then even holding elections may become unlikely.
The common people of the country will wait for this national government which will bring far-reaching reforms, ensure electoral reforms, political restructuring, and economic growth. The plan is good, but until its details emerge, comment is not possible. If amendments truly occur through collective consultation and are adopted through reconciliation, the country will become more stable. But if these reforms too are aimed at strengthening personal power and achieving political interests, then like General Musharraf’s reforms they will disappear from the page of existence as soon as he leaves power.